China's bank policy, Hong Kong property tightening measures, Ireland debt woes

There are talks about three main issues that all investors should know over the weekend. I will try my best to summarize them which will give you a better head start to this week's market movement. Below information are from Bloomberg and CNBC.
Europe debt woes continued when Ireland uncover the need of a bailout package to rescue itself and the rest of the banks. Fortunately, they received financial assistance and US futures gained as a result of the announcement.
Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said on Nov. 21 in Dublin that he expects talks on the details of financial assistance for Ireland to be completed in the "next few weeks." Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the loan will be less than 100 billion euros ($137 billion). He declined to give further details at a press conference in Dublin.
The Bank of China has increased the required reserve ratio by 50 basis points and till date, the required reserve ratio has hit a record high of 18.5%. This move is an attempt to control credit issuance and money in the financial system. As a result, China stocks was badly hit over the past few days.
Hong Kong has increased the stamp duty to 10% for properties resold within 6-12 months and 5% for properties resold with 12-24 months. Deposits increased from 40% for homes costing HK$12 million or more and 30% for those within HK$8-12 million. Officials has also stopped stop offering residency to foreigners in the city area and will increase the land supply to curb the current property speculation. Hong Kong Property Index fell 7.6% since Nov 8th.
Developers and property counters in Singapore stock market has also dipped, in reaction to the release of the Hong Kong property measures. In a report by Credit Suisse, the lower end segment of the housing market was indeed(Singapore), affected by the recent rounds of government measures to curb the property speculation. Price increase for private non-landed homes has also soften with the gradual increase of housing supply
STI still exhibits a bullish wedge pattern. CIMB holds support at 3155, next level at 3000. Technical indicators shows correction mode as investors worry about the China Bank Lending policies and property curbs in Singapore.

DBS: We maintain technical view for STI to attain 3438 by 1Q11. Near term support levels at 3200 (23.6% downward retracement) and a firmer at 3125 (38.2% downward retracement). Post 3Q10 results, our analysts have revised up earnings in FY10 and FY11 for our basket of stocks by only 1% each year. Earnings growth for FY10F and FY11F is now 21.2% and 12.4% respectively. Earnings upgrades were seen in Consumer Services, Industrial and Banks while Oil & Gas, Consumer Goods and Telecommunications suffered the steepest cut in earnings.

There are talks about three main issues that all investors should know over the weekend. I will try my best to summarize them which will give you a better head start to this week's market movement. Below information are from Bloomberg and CNBC.
Europe debt woes continued when Ireland uncover the need of a bailout package to rescue itself and the rest of the banks. Fortunately, they received financial assistance and US futures gained as a result of the announcement.
Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said on Nov. 21 in Dublin that he expects talks on the details of financial assistance for Ireland to be completed in the "next few weeks." Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the loan will be less than 100 billion euros ($137 billion). He declined to give further details at a press conference in Dublin.
The Bank of China has increased the required reserve ratio by 50 basis points and till date, the required reserve ratio has hit a record high of 18.5%. This move is an attempt to control credit issuance and money in the financial system. As a result, China stocks was badly hit over the past few days.
Hong Kong has increased the stamp duty to 10% for properties resold within 6-12 months and 5% for properties resold with 12-24 months. Deposits increased from 40% for homes costing HK$12 million or more and 30% for those within HK$8-12 million. Officials has also stopped stop offering residency to foreigners in the city area and will increase the land supply to curb the current property speculation. Hong Kong Property Index fell 7.6% since Nov 8th.
Developers and property counters in Singapore stock market has also dipped, in reaction to the release of the Hong Kong property measures. In a report by Credit Suisse, the lower end segment of the housing market was indeed(Singapore), affected by the recent rounds of government measures to curb the property speculation. Price increase for private non-landed homes has also soften with the gradual increase of housing supply
STI still exhibits a bullish wedge pattern. CIMB holds support at 3155, next level at 3000. Technical indicators shows correction mode as investors worry about the China Bank Lending policies and property curbs in Singapore.

CapmallsAsia, SGX

CapitaMalls Asia recently announced 3Q net profit at $68m (+14.0% yoy but -39.8% qoq) on 22% drop in revenue to $42.5m (-41.8% qoq). OCBC Sec notes weaker results due to divestment of Clarke Quay & 3 M’sian malls to its Reits. Highlights joint bid for Bedok site with parent CapitaLand marks CMA's 1st investment in Spore post-IPO. Some houses like CMA's retail expertise, large cash balance of $1.4b & significant debt headroom (no net gearing), which will fit its plans to invest $800m-1b in new projects in Spore, China, M’sia.
Management expects to complete 3 more malls in China in 4Q10. Stock is trading at close to support at $2.13.

Houses Target Price
OCBC 2.40 (under review)
Daiwa 2.65 (under review)
JPM 2.60
Deutsche 2.53
Normura 2.20


Different houses have very different views on SGX.
At the moment, It is still uncertain if the deal would go through. If the deal is off, the current price of SGX now would be very attractive to the fund managers and investors. If the deal is through, we may see more selling pressure as the price to pay for ASX is very high.
Technical indicators suggests the selling pressure is still on. Support for SGX would be it's resistance at $8.45.

Short Term
SGX is facing selling pressure due to the high investment cost of ASX. ASX receive A$22 in cash per share and 3.473 SGX shares for each ASX share. This is a 37% premium to the traded price before the announcement. SGX will shift from net cash position to a net *gearing(see below for definition) of 45%. This may even result in equity raising exercises which may deter investors from being vested.

Long Term
Since stock exchanges relies greatly on the volume and liquidity, the merger would have a positive effect in the long run. The merger will result in an additional 2000 over listed companies and more financial products.
These few days, we see a lot of reports from various houses on their views on SGX. To summarize, these are the target prices of the various banks and research houses.

Kim Eng TP of 8.33
DBS TP$11.40
Credit Suisse: $7.50
CIMB $8.21
DMG $8.33
OCBC $8.97
CLSA: $9.00
J.P. Morgan $7.40
Citibank $10.50
Deutsche Bank $8.55

Value investing.....

Watched the movie, Wall Street last week but didn't really think it was up to my expectation. Maybe I was expecting more secrets revealed about the dark side of the market rather than understanding the emotions of family disputes and disagreements.

In the show.... there was one part which intrigues me... and hence, i googled.. Tulipmania...
Tulip mania or tulipomania (Dutch names include: tulpenmanie, tulpomanie, tulpenwoede, tulpengekte and bollengekte) was a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which contract prices for bulbs of the recently introduced tulip reached extraordinarily high levels and then suddenly collapsed.[ -wikipedia- I think it's a very interesting story and it teaches about greed and speculation, which is the cause to every economy crisis. We argued that if the sale price is far more than the intrinsic value, then the item is overpriced... using credit limit to buy over priced item is speculation but in a bull market, what is expensive to the traders who can sell off their shares for higher value??

I apologise for the less frequent blogging now.. send reports to clients on a daily basis so needed more time to compile their reports. Here, I will not give any corporate infomation because most of it are easily obtained from the internet. However, I would still like to share my opinions.

Read a lot of investment books recently, only interested to know how investors can be successful... if only 5 out of 100 people make money from the stock market, I am of course interested to learn and guide my supportive clients in their directions.

Warrren Buffett, Benjamin Graham... They have few traits in similar.. they are frugal and save for rainy days. They are value investors which means they only use $0.60 to buy a share that is worth $1.00.. they learn to read the fundamentals of a company and understand before they purchase the stock...

This is important as with the case of XXX company...
There is a reason why we should never touch penny counters if we are merely a retail investor. It is very easy to manipulate a counter if the market capitalization is small. If the below counter selldown, to just 8 cents, 100 lots can cause a contra loss of $7000.00. The fundamentals of this company is ambigous...
XXX S$0.14-XXX.SI
􀁺 It is trading activity in stocks like XXX that causes us concern.
􀁺 A placement of 42 mln new shares at 4 cents a share were placed out to 2 individuals, and the stock surged.
􀁺 On Monday Sept 20th (day before the placement news), the stock was trading at 15.5 cents

Market is dominated by big players... As retail investors, we must learn to trade with care and practise value investing...

Real Estate Investment Trusts(REITs) - Information from the Pulses, August issue

While writing this article, I am also learning about the REITs which I would like to share with all of you.

REITs started in 2002 and went all the way up to 2007 when they saw the reversal during the crisis.

Whats makes REITs attractive?
1. Transparency
As compared to other stocks, it has less uncertainty and less ambiguity. For examply, when we talk about a manufacturing company, a lot of factors can affect the share price.. This includes the level of competition, sustainability of demand of the services and products.. NAV of the company may not be the same as the book value due to the real machine liquidation value. As technology improves, the prevailing machine may no longer be able to produce the new product. Obsoleted machines has less value.
2. Lack of real information
Do we really know what really goes inside the company? Is the picture really as rosy as what is printed in the reports?

REIT- a simple model
RAISE CAPITAL -> Buy and manage revenue generation property

BENEFITS:
Transparency
1. Cost of Caipital is known
2. Revenues generated from property is known as rental are locked for three years.
3. A trip to the mall will give you an idea of how the mall is performing
4. The management fees is fixed.

Real Estate Vs REITs/STOCKS
No doubt it is true that real estate offers high returns for little outlay when the market is hot. There is also a steady rent income unlike REITs and stocks where the dividend is paid semi anually or anually.

However, to invest in property, one has to come up with a large sum of capital outlay and it is less liquid taking some time to sell as compared to the stocks and REITs which is traded in the open market daily. Stocks and REITs are also more affordable as they are sold in smaller lots and hence, more affordable. Property transaction usually takes a longer time to complete... say about 2-3 months while stocks and REITs is about four days.

There are hefty transaction costs involve in buying a property like the agent commision, stamp duties, legal and administration fees, unlike brokerage which is only 0.275%.

Property is taxed but property stocks and REITs are not taxed.

You can diversify your portfolio if you own shares of bigger developers like Capitaland as they hold properties across the residential, commercial, retail and hospitality sectors...

STI cross 3000... August marks a new start...

Yesterday really marks a very bright and good start for the month of August with STI opening above its resistance at 3011.

As the saying goes, a rising tide raises all boats.

Yesterday, banks are also performing well with DBS leading the pack ... UOB cross $20.00 this morning. Keppel corp is going to trade XD on the 4th of August, dividend is at 0.16 per share. If you have no intention to hold this counter, let it go before the XD date.
After the rally yesterday, we can see profit taking this morning which has caused the market to pullback. STI touched 3003 but managed to come back from support. Currently STI is trading at 3013, still above the psychological level. STI resistance at 3037, 3050. ..
Price of Genting Singapore was driven down from the sell down by the fund manager and the houses this morning.. dropped from 1.30 to 1.24.. Big volume selldown does not look positive for this counter.
If you are holding capitaland, do take note.
Capitaland - Cautiously bullish. RSI indicator reading at overbought level.

KIM ENG Lunch Bites - FJ Benjamin Top volume featureFJ Benjamin (FJB SP, $0.365) – FJB stands to benefit from Singapore’s robust GDP growth and this may be reflected in its 4Q results on 23 August. Prices are above the uptrend line with rising RSI suggesting momentum is gaining strength. Volume is rising with candlesticks well above the moving averages. Tight support level holds at $0.35.

Lunch bites

KIM ENG
Lunch Bites - Cosco Corp Top volume featureCOSCO (COS SP, $1.63) – Cosco’s volume has picked up after it announced a groundbreaking drillship order worth more than US$500m. We have upgraded Cosco to a BUY. Technically, it is poised for more upside with the breakout of an ascending triangle. RSI is positive and support is at $1.56.

Top Idea

KIM ENG Top Idea

Overall volume traded is still thin... Highest volume Capitaland
Infrastructure
Midas Holdings (MIDAS SP) – Positive contract momentum
Midas announced two contracts yesterday worth a total of RMB130m. We estimate this brings the total contracts/letter of intent it secured in the last month to RMB290m. With improving market sentiment and positive contract momentum, we postulate that its Hong Kong dual-listing plans could be coming to fruition. We continue to peg our target price to 22x FY10F, in line with its peers in Hong Kong, and maintain our BUY recommendation with target price of $1.22.

Remisier Business: The game of how well you know your customers....

Hey guys, I'm so sorry that I haven't been blogging recently.... there were some changes in my work so I was busy doing the necessary paperwork.. but I am really glad that some of you are following up on the articles I wrote.
I have been meeting up with a lot of remisiers and dealers recently, just trying to understand how they succeed in their business when this industry is so competitive. I realise that it really takes a lot of perserverance, determination, EQ, foresight, passion and patience to walk through this long, tiring but rewarding career. The best sentence came from a remisier I have hardly know for two hours and he said that the remisier business is a game of how well you know your customers. His words keep ringing in my mind and I will definitely register all the kind teachings from the seniors... and my uncle who provided advices and took care of me in Kim Eng Securities....

There I go again.... rested enough and starting my engine again... Nothing fails if I'm determined and hardworking... Thank you for giving me the support and I hope to have your continual support.

The market has been really boring since the beginning or World cup. The volume traded in the market is quite low and the investors doesn't seem to be coming in... Counters breakout but did not hold. Market is clearly in a consolidating state and might unfortunately, last the entire year.

US market open negatively but closed positvely yesterday but did not have a significant effect on the Singapore market. If you search the news website like bloomberg or cnbc for information, you will realise that the overall market economy is not stabilized at the moment. Fortunately, the Q2 results for most of the companies is still acceptable or improving.

KIM ENG
PropertyKeppel Land (KPLD SP) – Tasting the fruit of its labour
Keppel Land (KepLand) reported a 1H10 PATMI of $134.7m. While this makes up 40% of our full-year estimate, it is largely in line with expectations as we anticipate even stronger contributions from its residential projects in 2H. Following good response to its recent launches in China, it has lined up more launches in 2H10.
The strong Singapore GDP forecast for 2010 should continue to underpin KepLand’s position as the leading prime Grade A landlord. New acquisitions from the Government Land Sale programme could also be on the horizon. Maintain BUY at a target price of $4.85.

Market Talk
Retail – Osim International (OSIM SP)banked cushy profits for its second quarter ended 30 June, with a 142% year-on-year surge from $5m to $12.1m. Revenue, fuelled by the launch of new products such as the uSoffa Petit, grew 12% from $117m to $131m. “Our product innovation and competitive positioning continued to drive consumer demand. We launched uMama Warm which exceeded sales expectations,” said Ron Sim, OSIM’s founder and chief executive. For the six months ended 30 June, net profit grew 146% to $20.1m, bolstered by strong margins. Revenue for the same period was up 22% year-on-year, from $213m to $259m.

Genting Singapore by Merrill Lynch

Haven't update this blog for a long time.... There are some changes to my job and have been pretty busy trying to make changes and updating all information. The world cup is coming to an end soon and it may be time for the market to improve. However, the world news are still causing jitters to the stock market.

Raise PO to S$1.40, implying 14x 2011E EV/EBITDA for RWSWe lift our earnings forecasts for Genting Singapore and thus raise our SOTPbased
PO to S$1.40, implying 23% upside. Short-term catalysts include the
completion of the UK asset sale as well as quarterly earnings, which we believe
will exceed consensus estimates. Despite the strong turnaround in share price
performance recently, we maintain our high conviction Buy on this stock.
Very little dilution from MBS opening and FIFA World Cup
A recent company visit reaffirmed that its casino operation at Resorts World
Sentosa (RWS) has not seen much dilution from the Marina Bay Sands (MBS)
grand opening and the on-going FIFA World Cup. Daily casino revenue remains
close to the levels the firm attained when it operated as a monopoly in early 2010.
Slot machines remain star performer; raising earnings
Despite the increased competition from MBS, slot machine performance at RWS
remains strong. We attribute this to the strong product offering – electronic table
games, progressive jackpots and a higher payout ratio – which enables it to gain
market share from slot clubs in Singapore.
As a result, we raise our 2010 and 2011 EBITDA assumptions by 13% and 12%,
respectively, to account for slots’ sustainable strong performance, which accounts
for over 20% of group forward earnings. With the upgrade, our 2010 and 2011
EBITDA forecasts are 41% and 26% above consensus.
UK disposal positive, enhancing focus and balance sheet
The proposed disposal of its UK casino business is a positive, in our view. It
enables management to concentrate on the ramp-up of RWS over the next 1.5
years, including junket introduction, the Universal Studio extension, new hotel
offerings and the Marine Life Park. More importantly, it will further enhance the
group’s balance sheet to prepare itself for the next leg of growth – possibly in
developed market jurisdictions – by 2012.

World Cup 2010

Market has been pretty quiet recently which is expected due to the world cup season. . low volume and low trading range. . Received a report today from J.P. Morgan sent to me by my team leader and guess wat... It was a 69 pages report on quantitative analysis of World cup 2010. Now wat, even the banks are diverting their attention to the world cup.. hmmm...... looks like I should join the crowd and share the information with my readers.


England won nine of their 10 matches in qualifying to progress to the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa™ in some style, with Wayne Rooney scoring nine goals in the process.

Fabio Capello picked up the pieces following Steve McClaren's ill-fated spell in charge that had seen England miss out on a place at UEFA EURO 2008. The Italian suffered no such problems, though, and England head into South Africa 2010 with confidence high following a successful qualification campaign which saw them top Group 6.

Their only defeat - a 1-0 loss against Ukraine - came in the penultimate group game. In total, England scored 34 goals in their 10 qualifiers and conceded just six.
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/newsid=1222660/index.html#nine+days

The world cup will start on the 11th June and end on the 11th July...

J.P. Morgan has predicted the following outcome based on a few parameters.

Winner of world cup: England

Second: Spain

Third: Netherlands

Quant analysis is a practice often considered as “too complex” by a large part of the investment community.

In this document we explained that, on the contrary, Quant is far from complex as Quants merely try to remove human based opinions when they make investment decisions.
Instead they use information and data points they consider relevant to investment in a systematic and efficient manner. Once they have found data sets thought to exert influence over future returns, they backtest them and make sure they can be used on a day-to-day basis to generate alpha.
As Quants use only numerical/statistical data for their market analysis, it seemed that sound Quant/mathematical Models could be used in fields outside Finance to make
accurate predictions.
With the amount of statistical information now available for Football fans, we thought it would be a very fruitful ground for investigation. We therefore decided to “translate” our successful stock-picking Quant Model and adapt it to predict the outcome of the World Cup matches and ultimately provide the World Cup winner.
As explained in the document, we focused on very intuitive data (comprising recent team performance, FIFA ranking, probability to win etc). Ultimately, we used our mathematical Model and applied it on a match by match basis and predicted winners.
Whilst our Model points towards Brazil as being the strongest team to take part in the World Cup, our “World Cup Wall Chart” indicates that thanks to the actual fixtures determined by the schedule, we believe England will be the winner of the 2010 World Cup.

We also highlight that the 3 favourites according to both our model and market prices (Brazil, Spain and England) offer a combined probability of 52.5% of winning the World Cup (as per prices on 30 April).

-J.P. Morgan-

Counters with Europe exposure

To be honest, I am really sick of hearing about the Greece debts and the bad news that comes in one after another. The market has been very volatile recently and it is really hard to trade at this time because even the rebound is not strong.. can't even last for a day. Everything falls back in place in the afternoon.... very dissapointed and demoralising....

I understand that some of you may be interested in bottom fishing. Though I don't really know and cannot predict when is it really the lowest, but if you are still interested, you may want to look at defensive counters and reduce your positions in counters with high european exposure trading at high premiums.

-Credit Suisse-
Sell all stocks with high European exposure or just those trading at high premiums such as Li & Fung and Tata Motors. With fears of a contagion from the periphery to the core rising and still no quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, investors appear to be selling every Asian stock with European exposure.

Stocks with European exposure that are trading at discounts. The stocks with European exposure that are trading at significant discounts (i.e., already pricing in some fall in ROE), including Yangzijiang Shipping (84% discount), Kia Motors (83%), Hyundai Mobis (66%), Espirit Holdings (53%) and Sembcorp Marine (37%). Can consider??

According to Credit Suisse HOLT® data, Asian stocks with the highest exposure to Europe
in terms of European revenue as a percentage of total revenue are:
- Espirit Holdings – 85%
- Yangzijiang Shipping – 78%
- Hutchison Whampoa – 61%
- Acer Incorporated – 51%
- Suzlon Energy – 43%
- Tata Motors – 40%
- Sembcorp Marine – 38%
- IOI Corporation – 33%
- Li & Fung – 27%
- Olam International – 27%

Another quiet trading day..

Following the drop of 114.88 points in dow jones yesterday, STI gapped down and open at 2806 in the morning. It is currently holding slightly above the psychological level at 2801. Regional markets are also not performing well. Overall sentiments of the market is still weak, with some counters hitting a new low.
There are still jitters and concerns over the europe debt issues, plus the property tightening policies in China. Honestly, all these are very old news and I have been writing about them since the beginning of May. But if all these are not resolved, investors will not have confidence in the stock market. Even if the company releases good news, in this market, it is very hard to perform.

Disappointing....

19 May 2010 14:43 CST DJ MARKET TALK: STI Off 1.5%; Likely To Close At New Low For May
0643 GMT [Dow Jones] STI off 1.5% at 2801.55, may end at lowest level this month, with intraday high of 2815 below May's current lowest close of 2821. Support at 2-month intraday low of 2775 set two weeks ago. Shares in broader market also weak, with most FTSE ST sub-indexes down, market breadth at 7 decliners for every gainer. "The index has already given up its gains accumulated from the start of the year. With the World Cup kicking off next month, it's going to get worse as the attention won't be on markets anymore," says trader at local brokerage. Even defensive, yield plays not spared, with ST Engineering (S63.SG) off 0.9% at S$3.19, Starhub (CC3.SG) off 0.9% at S$2.25, Singapore Press Holdings (T39.SG) off 0.5% at S$3.78. Overall participation remains low as volume under 750 million shares. (frankie.ho@dowjones.com)

The bull, the bear and the pig???????

I was having lunch with my colleagues today and he actually make a really funny comment... "You can be the bull, you can be the bear but you cannot be the pig that gets slaughtered in between." I looked at Stanley and laughed... at times he can really say something which is like, so out of the blue but when you think over it, it does make some sense.

I guess he was referring to the market now. Market is clearly in a consolidation mode.. no clear directions means it is very hard to make a good trading decision; long or short?? I was very tempted to enter the market today but when I think about the weekend approaching, I held back. Any negative news now will drive the market to go furthur down. I feel that we are kindda like standing at the tip of the iceberg.

Genting Singapore announced their results recently. I have nine different reports from different houses which have dfferent opinions about this counter.

Summary

Credit Suisse Underperform TP: S$0.9
Deutsche Bank BUY TP: S$1.00
Morgan Stanley TP: S$0.90 - S$ 0.94
DBS BUY TP: S$1.20
CIMB OUTperform TP: S$1.38
Kim Eng BUY TP: S$1.26
OCBC BUY TP: S$1.29
UBS Neutral TP: S$0.99
CitibanK SELL TP: S$0.65
JP Morgan Overweight TP: S$1.35

14 May 2010 14:36 CST DJ MARKET TALK: STI Flat; Exit As Weakness Ahead - CIMB 0636 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore shares unable to shake off morning fatigue as investors content to stay out. STI flat at 2869.03, with this week's high of 2899 expected to cap gains; support remains at 2800. "Trading is likely to remain quiet in the afternoon. We expect further downside in the coming days, as such we advise investors to take profit on trades before the weekend," says CIMB. Overall volume anemic at under 700 million shares. Even defensive stocks drawing little interest, with ST Engineering (S63.SG) flat at S$3.23, Starhub (CC3.SG) +0.9% at S$2.26, ComfortDelgro (C52.SG) flat at S$1.49, Singapore Press Holdings (T39.SG) off 0.5% at S$3.86. (frankie.ho@dowjones.com)

Have a fabulous weekend!

May - To buy or not to buy?

It is a little hard to focus now... While the price of most of the counters now is what seems like a 'good buy' but no one knows exactly the direction of the market as yet. The domino effect of the greece debts into the european markets, US markets, asian markets has caused Singapore market to drop by quite a far bit since the beginning of May. Now, with the world cup coming, what's next? History has shown that the market is always extremely quiet during the world cup season, will it still be the same this time?

I do not have the answer to my question... but for those who are interested to buy on this dip. you may be interested in the following article. In times like this, to play safe, look at defensive counters. Avoid penny counters!


STI 15 mins chart

Investopedia explains Defensive Stock
Defensive stocks remain stable during the various phases of the business cycle. During recessions they tend to perform better than the market; however, during an expansion phase it performs below the market. Betas of defensive stocks are less than one.

The utility industry is an example of defensive stocks because during all phases of the business cycle, people need gas and electricity. Many active investors will invest in defensive stocks if a market downturn is expected. However, if the market is expected to prosper, active investors will often choose stocks with higher betas in an attempt to maximize return.

A report from DMG and partners research strategy to provide you with some insights on defensive counters.
Market is down, where should we be looking? We advise investors to stay defensive with a focus on stocks with good earnings visibility and reasonable valuations. We highlight three major screens:
1) growth stocks;
2) stocks with attractive dividend yields and low earnings risks; and
3) cash-rich companies.

Screen 1: Growth stocks. Stocks are ranked by their projected PE-growth. Notable names with PE-growth below 1x include CapitaLand, SIA, WingTai, Venture and Noble. Of smaller caps, notable stocks include Healthway Medical, FJ Benjamin, Broadway and CSC. However, earnings of some of these counters may be adversely affected in a cyclical downturn.

Screen 2: Cash proxy stocks; low earnings risks and attractive yields. Of bigger caps, with cash-generative operations, yields in excess of 6% and minimal overseas exposure, we identify Starhub (9.3%), Suntec (7.5%), A-REIT (7.5%), M1 (7.3%) and SPH (6.2%) as ideal cash proxy stocks. We readily identify S-REITs as strong cash proxies which pay out 100% of earnings as dividends. For defensiveness, our pick remain ParkwayLife REIT (7% yield).

Screen 3: Cash rich companies could be in focus. Companies with large cash holdings include ARA and Venture.

DMG top nine best picks
A-REIT 1.83 TP:2.11 Attractive yield of 7.2%, above heyday yields of 6%. A Trading BUY at current levels.
Broadway 1.08 TP:1.46 Riding on the global HDD and semiconductor growth themes.
ComfortDelGro 1.45 TP:1.78 Trading at 13x FY10 P/E, its lower-range 13-17x P/E trading band; offers yield of 5%.
CWT 0.88 TP:1.10 Potential M&A in the works; attractive special dividend yield of 17%in FY10.
Ezra 1.93 TP:2.80 Positives from potential acquisitions and strong earnings growth
FNN 4.59 TP:5.30 Strong unbilled property sales of S$2.3b and Indochina's resilient F&B growth.
M1 2.05 TP:2.55 Attractive yield of 7% limits downside risks; set to benefit from NBGNBN in mid-2010.
ParkwayLife REIT 1.29 TP:1.52 Defensive business structure; accretive acquisitions on the cards; offers yield of 6.7%.
SPH 3.81 TP:3.95 Trading at 13x FY10 P/E, its mid-range 10-15x P/E trading band. A Trading BUY.

Market... too dynamic to remain static...

The perfect speculator must know when to get in; more important he must know when to stay out; and most important he must know when to get out once he’s in - anonymous

I was shocked when I woke up this morning.... I saw a msg from my friend on my Iphone, "Wat a day in US?" I frantically check the market indices, only to realised that DJ has dropped 347.8 points. I was really worried... I thought the market is going to crash down today.



STI did open low at 2779 today and drop about 20 points. By now, it has recovered quite a bit(2820). Later, reports mentioned that Dow Jones actual losses may not necessary be the closing price, it may be due to a technical gitch which created some error trades in the electronic trading system. The cancellation of the error trades help to alleviate the pain for the massive sell down today. It's is a good thing that STI can still stay above the support level at 2800 today. However, tonight Dow J performance will be a sign to our next monday's market direction. We are all anticipating... Perhaps, prepared for the worst...

Still, overall sentiment for the market is weak. Selldown is very strong and funds are taken out. News and reports are pretty negative. Please be cautious with your trading activities.

07 May 2010 11:00 CST DJ MARKET TALK:
A Case Of Jitters For Asian IPOs? -HEARD ON THE ST 0300 GMT [Dow Jones]
To lose one initial public offering in a week might be a misfortune. To lose four is a sign of real problems. That's the worry in Asia after Swire Properties pulled $3.1 billion flotation Thursday, due to lack of demand, marking HK's second failed listing this week. Giti Tires postponed $500 million float Tuesday. Singapore and Bombay have seen failed IPOs. Specific reasons given; in Swire's case, some suggest pricing was too aggressive. Still, Swire's strong reputation in HK might have supported a higher price in a firmer market. People close to other imminent IPOs suggest demand still strong; investors may simply be becoming more selective. But Chinese authorities' response should be closely watched, as some large Chinese bank IPOs are in pipeline, including Agricultural Bank of China's (AGBC.YY) planned $20 billion float. See "HEARD ON THE STREET: A Case Of Jitters For Asian IPOs?" (AJP)

Downtrend?

Market drop by quite a far bit these few days and trapped those contra players. The sell down was fast... Despite that, OCBC performed well, gained 1.16% after the announcement of their results.

Overall, market sentiment today is pretty negative. Jitters over the Europe debts problems caused the US market to lose 225 points yesterday. As a result. STI gap down today and open at 2863. At present, It is down about 36 points and currently trading at 2864. The Hong Kong and Shanghai market is also not performing and Hong Kong is down by about 400+. It will be tough for STI to recover today unless we see improvement in the regional markets. Volume traded today is also thin, mostly retail investors. Research reports did mention that there might be selling pressure for blue chips when volatility starts to rise.

We were taken aback by this news. One of the largest IPO this year fo far, New Century Shipbuilding actually withdraw from their planned IPO and this news damped the sentiments of the shipping counters like Cosco, NOL,, Yangzijiang, Jaya, JES.



STI should find strong support at 2740-50 in event latest 6% pullback develop into a near 10% correction but technical bounces likely on test of 2820-50 area. A minor technical rebound can be expected soon as the STI heads towards its key 2750 support area with 7-day RSI getting oversold at 25.3, entering the mid-Jan to early Feb zone when the index plunged 9.5% in a 20-day span from 2947 to 2666. -Amfraser Researcher, Najeeb Jarhom-

Sell in May and go away....

I believe many of you would have heard of this cliche saying especially for those who have been in the market for long.

Today is the first trading day of May and it is a really quiet day with not much trading activities and thin trading volume. Moreover the world cup is just round the corner, many traders will tend to be cautious. During this period of time, there could also be reduced capital inflows, savings set aside for vacation trips and buyers at bay due to companies' announcement of results and dividend payout.

Risk aversion strikesUncertainty #1: Europe’s sovereign debt crisis
Over the weekend, Greece accepted a bailout from the EU and IMF worth more than €100bil to avoid default. In return Greece will implement austerity measures worth some €30bil that includes wage cuts, 3-yr freeze in pensions and a 10% increase in sales tax. While there could be a knee jerk reaction to the bailout in the immediate term, uncertainty remains. The concern is that 2-3 years from now, Greece will still have an unsustainable debt and will have to restructure because it will suffer from a very deep recession in the mean time, according to a University of California professor (source: Bloomberg).

Uncertainty #2: US financial reform bill and Goldman Sachs lawsuit
The SEC’s lawsuit of Goldman Sachs and the spectre of criminal charges against the Wall Street firm added to market volatility last week. Shares of Goldman were weaker by 7.7% w-o-w as the company’s executive testified before the Senate. Then, there is also the Obama administration’s financial reform bill that could get passed by end-May. Whether the Goldman case portends more regulatory controls remains to be seen.

Uncertainty #3: China policy risk
The SSEC continued to reel last week, down 3.7% w-o-w as the Chinese government introduced more measures to cool its property market. A moratorium has been placed on fund raising by property firms that could block RMB110bil in share issues planned by 45 companies. In the capital city at Beijing, families have been limited to one new apartment purchase and home loans will be refused to people who cannot prove they have paid taxes and made social security contributions in the city for at least one year. There is also concern that China could also introduce a property tax on residential housing by end June on a trial basis in Beijing, Shanghai, southwestern Chongqing and the southern city of Shenzhen.
-DBS Vickers-

I realised that I do not need to log into the GL system to see the market's performance!
Just take a glance in the office and I know exactly wat is happening.

Five signs in the office to warn me that the market is consolidating or moving downwards.
1. The smell of medicated oil getting stronger and stronger
2. Table-top fans switched on. (Remisiers feels hot when the market is down... panic.. :>)
3. Literally no ringing of phones
4. Gathering around to talk or chit-chat
5. Looking at the computer screen and shaking their head

Five signs in the office when the market is up and running.
1. People shouting breaking counters once every hour
2. All table-top fans switched off
3. Remisiers joking and smiling happily at the computer screen
4. Phones ringing non-stop
5. Busy keying in orders

In the limelight - The Gaming Industry...

I have just posted about Genting two days ago and coincidentally, like I told my customers, this counter breakout with high volume yesterday. Today it hit a high of 0.98, one of the highest price recorded for the last two months. The reports on Genting Singapore and Marina Sands came in one after another.

Funny thing is that everyone expected Genting Singapore to drop due to the opening of Marina Sands but it happened otherwise, which leads me to wonder, is it true that market always work against our emotional decisions?

On the 28th April, Deutsche Bank upgrades Genting Singapore from hold to buy with a price target of $1.00 and J.P. Morgan analysed Genting Singapore as Overwight with a price target of $1.20.

Deutsche Bank upgrades Genting Singapore to Buy from Hold with a price target of S$1.00 (from S$0.91 previously). We believe the market is overly concerned about cannibalization risk (from MBS) and a smaller-than-projected Singapore gaming market size. Our data collection confirmed that the two-month-old Singapore gaming market is already US$2.2-2.4bn in size (annualizing current run rate), and with the recently opened MBS, the market will expand further. Genting Singapore’s share price has corrected 15.7% since the RWS opening in February (vs. STI’s +7.5% appreciation, and the valuation has fallen to 10x 2011 EV/EBITDA. While we expect Genting Singapore’s RWS to generate lower gaming revenue after the opening of MBS, an improvement in efficiency and continuous growth in the overall market should help mitigate some of the cannibalization effect. Even assuming RWS gaming revenue falls by 40-50% from the pre-MBS opening level, RWS should still meet Deutsche Bank’s forecast of S$1.7bn gaming revenue for FY10E. A more bullish top-down market approach of estimating the gaming market size at US$4.3bn (pegged at 0.3% of addressable GDP) would suggest SOTP of S$1.25/share assuming similar valuation methodology.

Understand from my customer that Marina Sands and Genting Singapore target different group of people(His company carries many of the distinguished brands in Singapore and they are in MBS). While Marina Sands target the upper end crowd, Genting Singapore is actually looking at the mass market. Reports actually did mention that the cannibalization is well contained and this two casinos will in fact, complement one another.


First Floor View of MBS


Marina Sands Night View

Photos Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

Casinos...

Many would have expect Genting to drop yesterday due to the opening of its rival company, Marina Bay Sands but Genting is still trading above its support, 0.835. However, it is pretty obvious that currently, it is on the downtrend.

There have been reports on Genting recently and many hold different views about this counter.

Genting is currently trading at 0.855.

Sands CEO says Singapore casino to break even in 5 yrs
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20100427/tap-sands-ceo-c3bb44c.html

Top 15 most recommended companies

Ezion Holdings LTD
Midas Holdings LTD
Parkway Life Real Estate Investment
UOL Group Ltd
Raffles Medical Group
Fraser and Neave Ltd
Yanlord Land Group Ltd
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Cambridge Industrial Trust
Singapore Airport Terminal S
Sia Engineering Company
Olam International Ltd
United Overseas Bank
Wheelock Properties (Singapore)
Parkway Holdings Ltd

Pulses, The business times
The Recommendation was done based on fundamental analysis and before the announcement of the china property tightening policies. You may want to be cautious on property counters. Please contact me if you need more information.

Today... Zzzzz

There was't much movement from the market today except for the few counters, KepLand, F&N, SGX, City Dev, Bakertech. I'm surprised how sensitive the market is, re-adjusting and reacting to all the news... one after another... even the Hong Kong futures and Shanghai futures dropped today. It will be a challenge for STI to cross the 3000 mark for furthur upside.
Office is so quiet today.. usually the phones are ringing non-stop and people constantly shouting for breakout counters. I hear nothing today. It's amazing how I can still keep myself awake especially after a long night yesterday.

0818 GMT [Dow Jones] Rebound in number of blue chips pushing STI back to positive territory. Index +0.4% at 2980.89 after holding below water for most of session. Resistance expected at 3000. "For the blue chips, there are a lot of dividends to collect from them. I guess the big boys have taken advantage of the pullback earlier to accumulate," says dealer at foreign brokerage. Out of 30 component stocks, half still trading cum-dividend. Notable gainers include Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG), +3.4% at S$9.97, SGX (S68.SG), +2.4% at S$8.26, Fraser & Neave (F99.SG), +2.9% at S$4.99, Wilmar (F34.SG) +1.2% at S$6.88. Prices in broader market, however, still mostly lower, with market breadth at 1.5 decliners for every gainer. (frankie.ho@dowjones.com)

Just for Laugh!
There was a tremendous turnaround in the market today:

A stockbrocker who jumped out of a window on the twelfth floor, saw a computer screen on the seventh floor and did a U-turn.

BakerTech

Written by my colleague, Augustine Chai..
There was a champion stock yesterday, Baker Tech, surging almost 20% after lifting from Halt. They are going to sell one of their investment company PPL to YangZiJiang.
Now, from the book value of PPL to Baker Tech, the investment cost them an initial sum of $3Million Sing, while the re-valuation of $5Million Sing (figures are approx). But they are selling the unit for US $155million. while is about $210Million Sing. This will greatly yield the profits of the company. From Per share point of view, Baker Tech Net Assest value will be $0.47 per share. with cash value ofalmost $0.4 per share. Which is incredible. Considering their turn value per annum is only S$75plus million.
Taking all this into considersation, the counter run through the roof and perform really well. Unless the business does not go through, it is definitely worth buying at 47 cents.

Note that Baker still has existing 327 Million warrant non-exercise, but these warrant carry an exercise price of 32 cents, which will significantly increase the company cash position.

After factoring the warrant, the company will have a cash position of 40 cents per share if the deal go through.

Note that on 26th of this month, YangZiJiang will need to place a 10% deposit, if they fail to place the deposit, the deal will not go through and Baker Tech price will fall back to the 34 cents level.

Disclaimer applies

WHY invest in the stock market

I came across this article in the internet and I would like to share it with you guys...

Michelle Hogan
http://www.suite101.com/article.cfm/women_and_investing/17689

Well, let's face it, shall we? No one ever promised us a rose garden...or maybe they promised but...the statistics say that most women will not get married as soon or stay married as long as we expect to. Further, we have a nasty habit of living 7 to 10 years longer than men, and like it or not, 9 out of 10 of us will be on our own financially at some point in our lives. We are also more likely to spend more time out of the workplace raising children, relocating with a spouse, continue our education or starting our own businesses. This is all great. It's encouraged, yet it is highly underpaid, very hard work.

Did you know that 75% of the elderly people living in this country below the poverty level are women? Another nifty statistic is the fact that the average woman will spend 14.7 years away form the "workforce", compared to her male counterparts 1.6 years. Don't overlook that lost income. These are missed opportunities to contribute to 401K programs and other investment options.

Money is a touchy subject, though, isn't it. Couples fight about it, in laws quiz you over it. The American public has a misconception about money. Money equals power. Money equals image. Most respondents to a Worth magazine survey said that the feature they would most likely change about themselves is the amount of money they have. The quest for money transcends age, race and gender.
It seems odd, then, if money is so completely on our minds that very few Americans, particularly women, actually feel confident handling their money. Money and certainly investing seem to have obtained some mystical quality that only "they" can supercede. Did you know that only 5% of the country has 5 or more investments? And that 51% hold all their money in checking or savings accounts?

Let me throw a couple of interesting numbers at you. If you put $10,000 into an index fund right now, in ten years it will be worth about $19,700. If you take that same $10,000 and invest it wisely in the stock market, using a long-term approach, history has shown that your investment will swell to $51,600, and that's assuming you don't add anything to it between now and then! By investing for the long term, by trying to envision your life in 10 or 20 years you can have a portfolio generating higher and higher dollar profits.

Furthermore, women are ideally suited for investing. I say this because most women aren't afraid to ask for directions...and you'll need to dig for plenty of information when picking your stocks. Women also understand cycles...very well I might add. Pick a handful of stocks from each sector. Look at their charts from the past 5 years or so. Notice the changes. Notice the cycles. Now, while I don't recommend trying to predict a cyclical dip, remember that what goes up generally does come down, at least once in a while. Women like to shop. They like to hunt for a bargain, at least most women do. And while I don't recommend buying the cheapest stock, do your homework. You'll find some great opportunities to buy some great stocks. Don't be put off by "popular" opinion. If a stock looks stable to you, if you know the sector well, and if you have done enough research to belive it's a good buy, stick to your guns. It could pay off in the end.

Daily Report

The market was quite bad. It gap down and opened at 2975 following the Goldman Sachs news, SIA news as well as the drop from the US market last friday. The bank counters and air flights are greatly affected. Cosco was performing strongly with high volume in the morning but it couldn't hold and dropped later in the afternoon.

Due to Beijing tightening of housing and property policies, a lot of property counters were affected. Eg, C31, Capitaland and Yanlord.
Yangzijiang and Bakertech resume trading today.

STI dropped below the psychological level of 3000. Although the market sentiments is not very good now, however, the report from our house analyst mentioned that this does not signify a major correction but expect the corrrection to be around May-June, world cup season. (Honestly, as a woman, i cannot believe that the world cup can actually have such a major impact on the stock market) :>

Pullback in Singapore shares in wake of falls in U.S. stocks Friday sends STI back below 3000 mark; index last down 1.2% at 2972.30, immediate support at last week's low of 2953. Stocks in broader market just as weak, with most FTSE ST sub-indexes negative, market breadth at 6 decliners for every gainer. "The short-term (picture) is not so good, (although) short-term weakness could turn into a buying opportunity," says Phillip Securities technical analyst Phua Ming-Weii; adds "the long-term picture still remains positive due to the improving economies, better S&P 500 earnings quarter-on-quarter, and a favourable yield curve." Singapore Airlines (C6L.SG) top percentage decliner among blue chips, down 2.7% at S$15.10, on concerns over Europe flight disruptions. CapitaLand (C31.SG) off 2.2% at S$4.01 as prospect of slower home sales in China weighs.

Cartier, Tag Heuer, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Bvlgari... Which one should I buy?

When I first started trading, I kind of regretted not studying and knowing much more. I guess I was really lucky, I could have lost much more but because it was almost the end of the downtrend, my counter rebound and I sold it off immediately. I still remember my money was all stuck in the counter and there was nothing I can do but just hope that the stock would recover. I tell you I am lucky... in half a year, I liquidate my portfolio... Some people waited TEN years. Yes, you didn't see wrong... 10 years and it never recovered..

Dec 2009, the devastating news of Chartered Semiconductor being delisted from Singapore Stock Exchange...

Another one.. is this familiar?


If you have never touch investment products before, i suggest you first go through a risk investment profile test. http://www.sorted.org.nz/calculators/risk-recommender/.
Please also spend some time reading the articles on investing on the right products. http://www.thedigeratilife.com/blog/index.php/2006/11/14/investor-know-thyself/

In a nutshell, an investment portfolio should contain bonds, unit trusts and stocks in different percentage. Of course, the different percentage is very much dependent on your risk appetite and your risk profile and this varies for different people. Even if we are only looking at buying stocks, we must diversify our risk by having more than 1 counter in our portfolio. Not the more the merrier, of course.... experts and economists are looking at 1-20 counters... but I much prefer just five from different industry and sectors so that I can spread my risk. . 20 counters?? My trainer will use this phrase again.. "Don't collect stamps in the market....." Sounds familiar?

Selecting a stock: Report reading for busy women

If a business does well, the stock eventually follows... Warren Buffet

A friend of mine knew a guy for the first time in her life, she thinks he has it all; cute, charismatic, tall and great physique... For months, they dated. He brought her to Paris, brought her back to his place to meet his parents and she has decided that he was the one for her. Six months later, they were married. The story begins, he started beating her after coming home drunk, he lied to her about his company and the debt collectors came knocking on the door every now and then..
How nice if someone could give her a report of his background, career, character and reviews when they first knew each other. Better still if she has an idea of his debt ratio, total liabilities, total equities, cash flow and profit statement. haahaa

Top down approach
1. Economic Analysis
2. Industry Analysis
3. Company Analysis (Fundamental and Technical)

Fundamental Analysis---READING COMPANY'S ANNUAL REPORT
Success is built on strong fundamentals

I stressed the importance of reading the company's annual report. Totally. It is usually the only published document that provides investors an annual snapshot of the progress of the company where the financial statements, operational discussions and chairman's message are revealed. It may seem a little challenging to understand the reports but just follow the few steps below, and you will be doing fine.

Please take note that this is only for beginners and if you are interested in understanding a company's report in full details, you can find the information in this website.
http://eucon.listedcompany.com/misc/Reading_AR.pdf

? Where and how to get annual reports
---> Company's Website
---> National Library Singapore

Step one: Light reading
Read the chairman's message, business review, corporate developments and the outlook for the following financial year.
Tip: Choose a company in an industry you are familiar in.
Are you comfortable in the business model? If yes, let's carry on...

Step two: Find out about the company plans for the following year
Acquisition?
Expansion?
New products/new services launched?
If any of these are in the pipeline, has the risks been assessed?
If the risks are assessed, are there adequate measures taken to address the pending issues?

Step three: Financial Performance/Report
- Net profit/Sales: Increase year on year and the sustainability
- Cash flow from operating activites/investing activites and financial activites:
Companies with ample cash on hand are able to invest the cash back into the business in order to generate more cash and profit.
- Net debt: How much debt really exists? What kind of debt is it (long/short-term maturities)? What the debt is for (repay or refinance old debts)? Can the company afford the debt if it runs into financial trouble? And, finally, how does it compare to the debt levels of competing companies?
- Gearing Ratio: A company with high gearing (high leverage) is more vulnerable to downturns in the business cycle because the company must continue to service its debt regardless of how bad sales are. A greater proportion of equity provides a cushion and is seen as a measure of financial strength.
- ROE: The amount of net income returned as a percentage of shareholders equity. Return on equity measures a corporation's profitability by revealing how much profit a company generates with the money shareholders have invested. Watch out if the ROEs decline with steadily rising earnings.
-Price to earnings ratio (P/E ratio): One of the most widely used ratios, it compares the current price with earnings to see if a stock is over or under valued.
Generally a high P/E ratio means that investors are anticipating higher growth in the future.
The average market P/E ratio is 20-25 times earnings.
The p/e ratio can use estimated earnings to get the forward looking P/E ratio.
Companies that are losing money do not have a P/E ratio.

Step four: Independent auditors' reports
Is the independent report clean as well?

Great! We are now done with the company's report. We cannot put all our eggs in one basket so we will be looking at portfolio diversification next.

www.sgx.com
www.investopedia.com
www.ibf.org.sg

Lesson 1: Basics of the stock market

Technical analysis is based on the principle that history always repeat itself... and that the future is found in the past plus the dynamics of demand and supply...

Alright, I know I know.. if you are a woman reading my blog, you will most likely be bored... the word TECHNICAL always have a drowsy and sleepy effect. You need to concentrate, and by that I mean imagine walking into Chanel and leaving the place with the diamond forever classic bag with the profits made from the stock market. Oh, by the way, this bag is labelled as one of the most expensive bags in the world and it cost $261,000. Gawd, it's the price of a small apartment. Can I live in the bag?



Let's not delve into the technical analysis as yet but let me prepare you for the basic necessary platforms and items...

1. Get a CDP account, securities firm and a broker/remisier. ( If you do not have one, please email me with your name and your contact number and I will get back to you as soon as I can).
2. Log into http://www.sgx.com/, find out about the trading hours and the terms/abbreviation used, i.e. bid, ask, volume, last, high and low. open, close, and contra. Your broker/remisier will be able to assist you.
3. Understand your brokerage statement, charges and what are these shares quantified by? 1000 shares = 1 lot, minimum purchase is 1 lot. How to calculate profit/loss?
4. A computer with a charting software. Optional: Get a trading coach, books and software

Great, now you have everything ready... I'm very sure that the next question on every woman's mind is : "Which stock to buy?"

History... A painful lesson, a reflection, a shadow or our future?

History always tends to repeat itself, as the cliche saying goes.. or should we learn from our past?

If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians..... Warren Buffett

Someone once told me that the stock market is like the biggest casino in the world. It can make you a millionaire overnight but you can also be totally wiped out the next day. I know of people who burnt their fingers terribly in the stock market and spent the next few years working very hard to pay off their debts. Trading seminars, textbooks and software are exhorbitantly high priced but still, people are willing to pay. If they are equipped with the knowledge so what went wrong?
Type in the words "trading rules" in the google search box and you will find a lot of articles related to the search. We know the trading rules but are we really executing them? Is our mind strong enough to cut our loss to a minimum? I can't say too much, I am also guilty of that...

Trade with care and trade within your means... Do your homework.. Fundamental and technical analysis are equally important.. Be patient! Delayed gratification is a sign of maturity....

If you have been there, done that.. pick up the pieces and learn from your mistakes.
Some people learn from other's mistake, some learn from their own mistakes and others never learn... Which category do you belong to?

16th Sept 1992 Black Wednesday
Not able to keep the pound sterling at the agreed lower limit, the conservative government suspended Britain's membership from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.
The UK goverment lost an estimated 3.4 million pounds.

1997 Asian Financial Crisis
The Asian financial crisis started with the devaluation of Thailand’s Bath, which took place on July 2, 1997, a 15 to 20 percent devaluation that occurred two months after this currency started to suffer from a massive speculative attack and a little more than a month after the bankruptcy of Thailand’s largest finance company, Finance One. This first devaluation of the Thai Baht was soon followed by that of the Philippine Peso, the Malaysian Ringgit, the Indonesian Rupiah and, to a lesser extent, the Singaporean Dollar. This series of devaluations marked the beginning of the Asian financial crisis. This first sub-period of the currency crisis took place between July and October of 1997. www.westga.edu/~bquest/2003/asian.htm

Late 1990s Dot-Com Bubble
We are all familiar with this. Remember the dot com stocks? The "dot-com bubble" (or sometimes the "I.T. bubble"[1]) was a speculative bubble covering roughly 1995–2000 (with a climax on March 10, 2000 with the NASDAQ peaking at 5132.52) during which stock markets in industrialized nations saw their equity value rise rapidly from growth in the more recent Internet sector and related fields. While the latter part was a boom and bust cycle, the Internet boom sometimes is meant to refer to the steady commercial growth of the Internet with the advent of the world wide web as exemplified by the first release of the Mosaic web browser in 1993 and continuing through the 1990s. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

Sept 11
Major economic effects arose from the September 11 attacks, with initial shock causing global stock markets to drop sharply. The attacks themselves caused approximately $40 billion in insurance losses, making it one of the largest insured events ever. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

2008
Lehman Brothers, one of the world’s biggest investment banks, has announced it is filing for bankruptcy, in one of the worst banking collapses in history. As the world economy prepared for a round of devastating blows caused by the credit crisis, Bank of America also agreed to buy Merrill Lynch, another giant of investment banking, for $50 billion in a deal creating the world’s largest financial services company and saving Merrill from Lehman’s fate. Asian markets tumbled on the news, while European and American markets were expected to follow soon after opening. Coupled with moves by other Wall Street giants, billions of pounds worth of value from pension funds and other investments could be wiped by the end of the day. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/2966656/Lehman-Brothers-files-for-bankruptcy-as-credit-crisis-bites.html2009

Dubai Crisis
With the onset of a financial crisis of 2007–2010, Dubai's real estate market declined after a six-year boom. On November 25, 2009, the Dubai government announced that the company "intends to ask all providers of financing to Dubai World and [its subsidiary] Nakheel to 'standstill'[7] and extend maturities until at least 30 May 2010".[8] The company has laid off 10,500 employees worldwide[9] as the company restructures with the help of Deloitte consultants. At that time, Dubai World had debts of $59-billion, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the emirate's US$80-billion debt.[10] This includes a US$3.5-billion loan which the company is unable to repay by its December deadline.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubai_World